SYDNEY — The air’s thick with tension Down Under, and it’s not just the autumn chill. Australia’s federal election, set for May 3, 2025, was supposed to be a slam dunk for the conservative Liberal Party. They had the edge, riding a wave of voter frustration over skyrocketing home prices and a cost-of-living squeeze. But then Donald Trump stormed back into the White House, and the script flipped. Hard. Now, polls show the Liberals bleeding support, and the ghost of Canada’s recent election—where conservatives tanked under Trump’s influence—is haunting the campaign trail.
Just months ago, the Liberal Party, led by Peter Dutton, was neck-and-neck with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s Labor Party. Voters were fed up, grumbling about mortgages they couldn’t afford and grocery bills that felt like highway robbery. The Liberals smelled blood, poised to reclaim power after three years in the wilderness. But Trump’s inauguration on January 20, 2025, changed everything. His first move—slapping a 10% tariff on all Australian exports to the U.S.—sent shockwaves through the economy. Australia, a loyal U.S. ally, wasn’t spared, despite its role as a key security partner in the Indo-Pacific, countering China’s growing clout.
The tariffs hit like a sledgehammer. Australia’s trade surplus with the U.S., which hit $15 billion in 2024, started to wobble. Exporters, from beef farmers to wine producers, faced higher costs overnight. On April 16, the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported a 2% drop in export revenue to the U.S., with more pain expected. Small businesses, already battered by inflation, started laying off workers. In Sydney’s western suburbs, a factory owner told reporters he’d have to shutter his plant if the tariffs stuck. “We’re not China,” he growled. “Why are we getting punished?”
Voters took notice. Polls shifted fast. A survey by Newspoll on April 28 showed Labor pulling ahead, with 52% of the two-party-preferred vote to the Liberals’ 48%. That’s a six-point swing since January. The reason? Trump. His policies, from tariffs to fiery rhetoric dismissing allies like Australia as “freeloaders,” have spooked the electorate. Australians, who’ve long seen the U.S. as a bedrock ally, are rattled. Trust in America’s reliability has plummeted, with a Lowy Institute poll on April 30 showing only 35% of Australians view the U.S. as a “dependable partner,” down from 60% a year ago.
The Liberals are caught in a bind. Dutton’s been forced to pivot, promising to “stand up to Trump” while dodging questions about how. His party’s pro-U.S. stance, a cornerstone of their platform, is now a liability. At a campaign stop in Brisbane on April 25, Dutton tried to thread the needle, vowing to “protect Australian jobs” while maintaining the alliance. The crowd wasn’t sold. One voter, a mechanic named Sarah, shrugged. “He’s talking tough now, but where were they when Trump started this mess?” Labor’s hammered the point home, with Albanese warning that a Liberal government would be “too weak” to handle Trump’s unpredictability.
Canada’s election on April 7 looms large. There, the Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, was cruising to victory until Trump’s tariffs and border threats dominated the campaign. Canadian voters, fearing economic chaos, swung to the Liberals, who eked out a minority government. The parallels are uncanny. Both countries, liberal democracies with resource-driven economies, are grappling with Trump’s America-first agenda. In Australia, the U.S. is the third-largest trading partner, accounting for 10% of goods and services trade in 2024. It’s also the biggest source of foreign investment, with $1.2 trillion in the economy.
Albanese, no stranger to tight races, has seized the moment. He’s framed the election as a choice between stability and chaos. At a rally in Melbourne on April 29, he reminded voters of his work to mend ties with China, Australia’s top trading partner, after the previous Liberal government’s spats triggered crippling trade bans. “We’ve brought calm to the storm,” he said, jabbing at the Liberals’ Trump problem. His message is resonating, especially in swing seats where economic fears trump ideology.
The Liberals aren’t waving the white flag yet. They’re doubling down on domestic issues, hammering Labor on housing and inflation. But Trump’s shadow keeps creeping in. On May 1, a Liberal ad campaign touting “strong leadership” was drowned out by news of another U.S. tariff hike, this time on Australian steel. Voters aren’t stupid—they know global markets don’t bend to slogans.
With two days to go, the race is tight. Labor’s lead is narrow, and turnout could make or break either side. What’s clear is that Trump, half a world away, has turned Australia’s election into a referendum on his influence. Whether the Liberals can shake his shadow before Saturday is anyone’s guess.
The election is scheduled for May 3, 2025. Polls close at 6 p.m. local time. The Australian Electoral Commission expects results by late that evening.