The Premier League’s battle for European spots is a mess of hope, heartbreak, and cold math as the 2024/25 season barrels toward its close. With just a handful of games left, clubs are scrapping for the Champions League, Europa League, and Conference League like dogs over the last bone. The standings are tight, the permutations are dizzying, and every fixture feels like a final. Here’s where things stand, what’s at stake, and who’s got what left to play.
Liverpool are already sipping champagne. Their 5-1 demolition of Tottenham on April 27 locked in the Premier League title and a guaranteed Champions League spot for 2025/26. No sweat for Arne Slot’s men—they can’t finish lower than third, so Europe’s elite competition is theirs. But below them, it’s chaos. Arsenal, Manchester City, and Newcastle are duking it out for the remaining top-four slots, with the top four all but certain to qualify for the Champions League. A fifth spot might open up too, thanks to England’s strong UEFA coefficient, boosted by Arsenal’s win over Real Madrid in March. If that holds, the team in fifth—likely Manchester City as it stands—could sneak into the Champions League instead of settling for the Europa League.
Chelsea, sitting fifth after a gritty 1-0 win over Everton on April 14, are in pole position for at least the Europa League. But they’re not safe. Nottingham Forest, who slipped to sixth after a 2-0 home loss to Brentford on April 24, are breathing down their necks. Brentford, now seventh, aren’t out of it either—their goals from Kevin Schade and Yoane Wissa at the City Ground kept their European dreams alive. The Europa League spot goes to the fifth-placed team unless the Champions League’s fifth spot comes into play, in which case sixth could still mean Europa League football. Seventh might land the Conference League, but it’s a consolation prize nobody’s crowing about.
Then there’s Manchester United and Tottenham, both in the mud. United, languishing in 14th, and Spurs, even worse at 16th, have no shot at Europe through the league. Their only hope? Winning the Europa League itself. Both are still in the competition, and a final showdown in Bilbao on May 21 could see one of them snatch a Champions League spot for 2025/26. It’s a long shot, but it’s all they’ve got.
The remaining fixtures are brutal. Nottingham Forest have the easiest run on paper, with an average fixture difficulty rating of 2.6. Their toughest tests are a trip to Aston Villa on April 5 and a final-day clash with Chelsea on May 25. Otherwise, they face bottom-half sides like Leicester and Ipswich, which could be points in the bag. Chelsea’s schedule is trickier—they’ve got Forest on the last day, plus a visit to Tottenham on May 10. Brentford, meanwhile, face a gauntlet: Arsenal on May 3 and Manchester City on May 17 could crush their momentum.
Permutations are a headache. If Chelsea win out, they’re likely locked for fifth and the Europa League, maybe even the Champions League if that fifth spot materializes. Forest need to overtake Chelsea, which means no more slip-ups like the Brentford loss. Brentford, two points behind Forest, must be perfect and pray for stumbles above them. The Champions League spots hinge on Arsenal, City, and Newcastle holding firm, but a collapse from any could open the door for Chelsea or even Forest to climb higher.
Every goal, every point, every referee’s call matters now. The Premier League’s race for Europe is a high-stakes poker game, and nobody’s folding yet.
Liverpool are confirmed for the 2025/26 Champions League. Arsenal, Manchester City, and Newcastle are in the top four as of May 2, 2025. Chelsea are fifth, followed by Nottingham Forest in sixth and Brentford in seventh. Manchester United are 14th, Tottenham 16th. The Europa League final is on May 21, 2025. Nottingham Forest’s remaining fixtures include Aston Villa (away, April 5), Leicester (home, April 19), Ipswich (away, May 3), Burnley (home, May 10), Crystal Palace (away, May 17), and Chelsea (home, May 25). Chelsea’s remaining fixtures include Southampton (home, May 3), Tottenham (away, May 10), Newcastle (home, May 17), and Nottingham Forest (away, May 25). Brentford’s remaining fixtures include Arsenal (away, May 3), Bournemouth (home, May 10), Manchester City (away, May 17), and West Ham (home, May 25).