Donald Trump’s 2025 tariff agenda may sound like a sequel to his 2018 trade war, but make no mistake—this is a whole new beast. While both are built on America-first rhetoric and hardball negotiation tactics, Project 2025 brings bigger ambitions, fewer filters, and higher risk across the board.
Let’s compare the two head-to-head:
2018: Tactical Tariffs with a Global Goal
The Strategy
Trump’s 2018 trade war was aimed squarely at China. It started with steel and aluminum tariffs, then escalated into hundreds of billions in duties on Chinese goods. The goal? Pressure Beijing into a more favorable trade deal and curb what the White House called unfair trade practices and IP theft.
The Collateral Damage
- U.S. farmers took a massive hit as China retaliated with soybean tariffs.
- American companies faced supply chain chaos, especially in tech and manufacturing.
- The economy kept growing—but at a slower pace—and Trump eventually cut a partial deal (the “Phase One” agreement) in early 2020.
Takeaway: 2018’s trade war was targeted, reactive, and used as a negotiating tool, not an endgame.
2025: All-In Tariff Blitz with No Brake Pedal
The Strategy Now
In 2025, Trump isn’t just focused on China—he’s taking aim at everyone: the EU, Australia, Mexico, Canada, and more. This isn’t about tweaking trade terms. It’s about reconstructing the entire U.S. economic model through tariff walls, reshoring, and economic nationalism.
What’s Different?
- Massive across-the-board tariffs, including a proposed 10% universal import tax.
- Political punishment tariffs, like the 200% slap on European wine.
- No clear goalposts—it’s more ideology-driven than negotiation-based.
- Tension with allies, not just rivals. This is multi-front trade warfare, not a surgical strike.
The New Risks
- The Fed is spooked: Growth is slowing, inflation’s rising, and uncertainty is paralyzing investment.
- U.S. consumers will pay more—this time on nearly everything, not just electronics and cars.
- Global retaliation could spiral into economic isolation, making it harder to re-enter trade deals like the CPTPP or reset relations with EU and Asian allies.
Why Project 2025 Feels Riskier
- No Clear Off-Ramp: Unlike 2018, there’s no sign of compromise or Phase Two deals. This is designed to be permanent.
- Wider Target List: We’re now going after allies and enemies—shrinking our diplomatic leverage.
- Deeper Economic Ties in 2025: The global economy is even more interconnected post-COVID. Blowing up supply chains today does more damage than it did in 2018.
- Higher Stakes, Less Control: The 2018 trade war was disruptive. Project 2025’s plan could be destabilizing—especially if inflation spins out of control and allies begin cutting the U.S. out of trade talks.
2018 Was a Trade Fight. 2025 Might Be a Trade Reckoning.
Trump’s 2018 tariffs were tough but strategic. Project 2025’s approach feels more like an economic crusade—and one that could ignite global backlash, domestic price hikes, and a trade cold war that the U.S. may not be ready for.