Germany’s Political Shift: Why Did Germany Vote for Change?

Germany’s latest Bundestag election has resulted in a major political shift, with Friedrich Merz’s center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) securing victory and the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) achieving its best-ever result.

The election marks a turning point for German politics, with immigration, economic struggles, and growing nationalist sentiment shaping voter preferences. Outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) suffered a historic defeat, signaling the end of a center-left coalition government and a possible rightward shift in German policies.

Election Results: CDU Wins, AfD Rises, SPD Collapses

The final election results show a significant realignment in Germany’s political landscape:

With 208 seats, the CDU has emerged as the dominant party, though still short of an outright majority (316 seats needed). This means Merz must form a coalition to govern.

The biggest shock, however, is the surge of the AfD, which secured 152 seats, becoming the second-largest party in Germany for the first time.

Why Did Germany Vote for Change?

Several key issues shaped voter decisions, leading to the rise of the CDU and AfD and the collapse of the SPD-led government:

1. Immigration Backlash

Germany has accepted millions of asylum seekers and migrants in recent years, particularly from Syria, Afghanistan, and Africa. However, a growing portion of the electorate feels overwhelmed by the challenges of integration, rising crime, and economic strain.

• AfD capitalized on anti-immigration sentiment, pushing a platform of border security, deportations, and a reduction in asylum approvals.
• CDU, under Merz, took a more moderate approach, promising stricter immigration laws without outright rejecting asylum seekers.

2. Economic Hardships and Energy Prices

Germany’s economy has struggled with inflation, slow growth, and high energy prices since the 2022 Ukraine war and the phasing out of Russian gas imports.

• Many German industries have been impacted, leading to job losses and factory closures.
• Voters blamed the SPD-Green coalition for not doing enough to protect businesses from high energy costs.
• CDU and AfD promised tax cuts, lower energy prices, and support for local manufacturing, gaining votes from working-class and middle-class Germans.

3. Security and Crime Concerns

Public safety emerged as a major election topic, with concerns about rising crime rates, violent protests, and political extremism.

• CDU campaigned on a “tough on crime” approach, pledging more police funding, stronger sentencing laws, and a crackdown on radical groups.
• AfD took an even harder stance, arguing for deportations of foreign criminals and the removal of “soft” policing policies.

4. The Collapse of Olaf Scholz and the SPD-Green Coalition

• Olaf Scholz’s government struggled to maintain public confidence, especially as inflation remained high and economic recovery was slow.
• His handling of EU relations, energy policy, and military funding alienated voters, leading to a historic defeat for the SPD.

What Happens Next? Coalition Talks Begin

Since CDU did not win an outright majority, Merz must form a coalition government. The most likely options include:

1. CDU + FDP + Greens ("Jamaica Coalition")

• Would bring together moderate conservatives, liberals, and environmentalists.
• Would focus on economy, security, and climate policies.
• Uncertain if the Greens will cooperate after their major losses.

2. CDU + SPD ("Grand Coalition")

• Would be a centrist government, but unlikely given SPD’s disastrous results.
• Scholz may refuse to work under Merz after such a major loss.

3. CDU + AfD Coalition (Highly Controversial)

• CDU has publicly ruled out working with AfD due to its radical positions and nationalist policies.
• However, some CDU politicians in Eastern Germany have hinted that local alliances with AfD could become reality.

A coalition decision is expected within weeks, but Germany’s next government could shape the entire direction of Europe.

The Far-Right AfD: Will They Gain More Power?

Even though AfD has become Germany’s second-largest party, it remains politically isolated as most other parties refuse to work with them.

However, their growing support suggests that nationalist, anti-immigration politics are gaining ground in Germany.

• If AfD continues to rise, future elections could bring them even closer to power.
• Their success could influence other European elections, as countries like France, the Netherlands, and Austria have seen similar nationalist movements growing.

How This Affects Europe and the World

1. Germany’s Role in the EU

• With Merz in charge, Germany is expected to push for more economic independence from the European Union.
• Merz has criticized EU bureaucracy and may demand reforms before increasing Germany’s contributions.

2. Military and NATO Policy

• Germany will continue supporting Ukraine but may push for more European-led defense spending rather than relying on U.S. military support.
• Merz has signaled closer defense ties with France and Poland, while reducing tensions with Russia remains uncertain.

3. Immigration Laws Across Europe

• If Germany tightens immigration laws, other countries like France, Italy, and Spain may follow.
• A Europe-wide push for border security could change asylum policies in the EU.

A New Direction for Germany

Germany’s 2025 election marks a political shift, with the center-right CDU regaining power, the far-right AfD rising, and the center-left SPD collapsing.

• Friedrich Merz will lead Germany, focusing on economic recovery, immigration reform, and stronger security policies.
• The AfD’s record gains show growing nationalism in Germany, which could impact future European elections.
• Germany’s position in the EU, NATO, and global affairs may see significant changes under the new government.

This election is one of the most important in Germany’s modern history, and the next few months will shape the country’s political and economic future.