Ottawa’s streets are buzzing with election fever, and the latest numbers from EKOS Research have dropped a bombshell: the Liberals are poised to clinch a majority government in the 2025 federal election. Released on April 27, the final poll from the veteran firm paints a vivid picture of voter sentiment, with a three-day rolling survey that’s as close to a crystal ball as pollsters get.
The Liberals, led by Justin Trudeau, are projected to snag 184 seats, a comfortable majority in the 338-seat House of Commons. The Conservatives, under Pierre Poilievre, trail with 133 seats—a respectable showing but not enough to unseat the red wave. EKOS’s interactive voice response poll, conducted with 1,672 Canadians, carries a margin of error of 2.4%, giving the numbers a sturdy backbone. This isn’t some backroom guess; it’s data crunched from real voices across the country.
Digging into the vote split, the Liberals command 43% of the popular vote, a 10-point lead over the Conservatives at 33%. The NDP, battered by a brutal campaign, limps in at 7%, while the Bloc Québécois scrapes 4%. The Greens and People’s Party barely register, with 2% and 1%. These figures, locked in just days before Canadians hit the polls, reflect a electorate leaning hard into stability—or at least the Liberal brand of it.
EKOS, a fixture in Canadian polling since the ‘80s, isn’t tossing darts blindfolded. Their final call hinges on a method that’s weathered elections before: a rolling IVR poll that captures late swings in voter mood. On April 20, an earlier EKOS survey had the Liberals up by 10 points, a gap that’s held steady. The numbers aren’t just raw data—they’re a snapshot of a country at a crossroads, grappling with inflation, housing woes, and global uncertainty.
Campaign insiders say the Liberals’ edge comes from a disciplined ground game and Trudeau’s knack for rallying urban voters. Toronto, Vancouver, and Montreal are expected to deliver a haul of seats, while the Conservatives hold firm in the Prairies and rural strongholds. The NDP’s collapse, down 11 points from prior polls, has left progressive voters drifting to the Liberals, a trend EKOS flagged weeks ago.
Voters head to the polls on April 29, and if EKOS is right, the Liberals could be sworn in with a mandate to push their agenda—carbon taxes, housing plans, and all. The Conservatives, meanwhile, face a reckoning, with Poilievre’s fiery rhetoric falling short of flipping the map blue. It’s a high-stakes moment, and the numbers don’t lie.
The poll was conducted from April 24 to 26, 2025, with a sample size of 1,672 adults. The projected seat counts are based on regional vote distributions and historical turnout patterns.