OTTAWA — Mark Carney stood before a roaring crowd in Ottawa’s TD Place Arena on April 29, 2025, his tie slightly loosened, his voice steady but fierce. “America wants our land, our resources, our water, our country,” he declared, pausing as cheers erupted. “President Trump is trying to break us so America can own us. That will never, ever happen.” Canada’s federal election had just delivered a stunning win for Carney’s Liberal Party, a comeback nobody saw coming months ago when polls had them buried. The victory, projected by the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation, secures a fourth term for the Liberals, though they fell three seats short of a majority, landing at 169 in the 343-seat House of Commons.
The election, held on April 28, was a slugfest shaped by one man who wasn’t even on the ballot: U.S. President Donald Trump. His tariffs on Canadian goods—25% on everything from cars to lumber—and his repeated jabs about turning Canada into America’s “51st state” lit a fire under voters. Nearly 19.6 million Canadians, a record 68.7% turnout, poured into polling stations, the highest since 1993. Carney, a 60-year-old former banker who’d never held elected office until this year, rode that wave of outrage to victory. His rival, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, conceded defeat early Tuesday, his own seat in Carleton shockingly snatched by Liberal Bruce Fanjoy, ending a 20-year run.
Carney’s path to this moment was anything but smooth. When Justin Trudeau stepped down as prime minister on January 6, the Liberals were staring down a 20-point deficit in the polls. Poilievre, a sharp-tongued populist, had been cruising toward a landslide, hammering Trudeau on inflation and housing woes. But Trump’s return to the White House in January, followed by his trade war and annexation taunts, flipped the script. Carney, sworn in as Liberal leader and prime minister in March, called a snap election on March 23, betting he could channel Canada’s fury into votes. It worked. By April, polls showed the Liberals surging to 43%, with the Conservatives trailing at 39%.
The campaign was a bare-knuckle brawl over who could best stand up to Trump. Carney, who steered the Bank of Canada through the 2008 financial crisis and the Bank of England through Brexit, pitched himself as the steady hand for turbulent times. He promised retaliatory tariffs but warned that escalating them too far would hurt Canadians more than Americans. Poilievre, meanwhile, struggled to shake comparisons to Trump’s style—his “Canada First” slogan and anti-“woke” rhetoric didn’t help. Voters, reeling from Trump’s latest social media post on election day wishing Canadians “good luck” with his 51st-state fantasy, leaned toward Carney’s call for unity and defiance.
On April 29, as results rolled in, the Liberals’ minority government became clear. They’ll need support from smaller parties like the New Democrats or Bloc Québécois to pass laws and avoid a quick collapse. The New Democrats, led by Jagmeet Singh, took a beating, dropping to seven seats and losing official party status. Singh announced he’d resign once a successor is chosen. The Conservatives, despite gaining seats overall with 145, couldn’t close the gap. Poilievre vowed to stay on as leader, promising to “hold the government to account” while facing down Trump’s tariffs.
Trump himself called Carney on April 29 to congratulate him, a conversation the Prime Minister’s Office described as professional. The two leaders agreed to meet soon, though no date was set. They stressed the need for Canada and the U.S. to work together “as independent, sovereign nations.” But the White House didn’t back off entirely—spokesperson Anna Kelly said the election result “does not affect President Trump’s plan” to pursue his 51st-state idea.
Carney’s victory speech was a blend of grit and hope. He spoke of a “new world order” where Canada must diversify trade beyond the U.S., leaning on Europe, the UK, and others. He praised his opponents for strengthening democracy but didn’t mince words about the road ahead. “The old relationship with the United States is over,” he said, signaling a shift from decades of tight integration. His government now faces a juggling act: negotiating with Trump, boosting a sluggish economy, and keeping a fractious Parliament in line.
World leaders were quick to chime in. European Union chief Ursula von der Leyen pledged to work closely with Carney in the G7. French President Emmanuel Macron called him the embodiment of a “strong Canada.” Even India’s Narendra Modi, despite recent tensions with Canada, expressed hope for a stronger partnership. At home, Liberal cabinet veteran Patty Hajdu credited Carney’s leadership for the turnaround. “Four months ago, it didn’t look good for us,” she told CBC Radio on April 30. “Mark Carney has the wisdom to deal with complex economic shocks.”
The final tally showed tight races in several ridings. In Terrebonne, the Bloc Québécois led by just 28 votes out of 56,000. In Brampton Centre, the Liberals edged out the Conservatives by 142 votes. Seven million Canadians cast early ballots, a record that helped speed up the count. Carney himself won a seat in Ottawa’s Nepean riding, his first time in Parliament. The Liberals’ win, while historic, leaves them vulnerable. They’ll need to broker deals to pass a budget, a throne speech, and Carney’s promised tax cut by July 1.