Newfoundland’s foggy shores kicked off Canada’s federal election today, April 28, 2025, with polls opening at 8:30 a.m. in the east, while the rest of the country—stretching from Quebec’s bustling cities to British Columbia’s rain-soaked coast—followed suit as clocks ticked forward. Canadians are streaming to community centers and school gyms, ballots in hand, after a campaign that’s been less about homegrown issues and more about one loud voice south of the border: Donald Trump. His tariffs and wild talk of turning Canada into America’s “51st state” have flipped this election upside down, transforming a sleepy race into a high-stakes showdown.
Just months ago, the Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, was coasting toward a landslide. Polls in January showed them crushing the Liberals by 25 points, with voters fed up after nearly a decade of Justin Trudeau’s government. Poilievre, a sharp-tongued populist, hammered on housing costs and inflation, promising a “Canada First” fix. But then Trump, fresh off his January 20 inauguration, lobbed a grenade. He slapped 25% tariffs on Canadian goods—cars, steel, aluminum, you name it—starting March 4, and kept needling Canada with annexation taunts. Suddenly, the election wasn’t about grocery bills. It was about survival.
Trudeau, battered by low approval ratings, saw the writing on the wall and resigned on January 6. Enter Mark Carney, the former Bank of Canada governor, who took the Liberal helm on March 9 after a lightning-fast leadership race. Carney, with his Oxford polish and banking chops, leaned hard into the Trump threat, vowing on March 27 to slap 25% retaliatory tariffs on American imports. He’s pitched himself as the guy who can stare down the U.S. president without blinking. “Trump wants to break us,” Carney said at a rally in Vaughan, Ontario, on April 7, his voice steady but urgent. “We won’t let him.”
The campaign, called on March 23 for a snap vote, has been a 36-day sprint, chaotic and raw. Trump’s shadow loomed over every debate. On April 17, in Montreal’s English-language face-off, Poilievre and Carney traded barbs over who could better shield Canada’s economy. Poilievre, pushing tax cuts and more oil production, accused Carney of riding Trump’s coattails to distract from Liberal failures. Carney shot back, calling Poilievre’s rhetoric too close to Trump’s own brand of division. Voters, meanwhile, have been glued to the drama, with early voting smashing records—over 7.3 million ballots cast before today.
The tariffs are already biting. Canada’s auto industry, especially in Ontario, is reeling, with 500,000 jobs at risk. Alberta’s oil exporters, who send 90% of their crude to the U.S., are bracing for pain. Trump’s Truth Social post on April 28, urging Canadians to vote for “the 51st state” and promising tax cuts and military might, only poured gas on the fire. Canadians, defiant, have been boycotting U.S. goods—think Kentucky bourbon and Florida oranges—and canceling trips to Miami or Vegas. A rally in Toronto on March 22 saw thousands waving maple leaf flags, chanting, “Canada is not for sale.”
Polls show a neck-and-neck race. An Ipsos survey on April 14 had the Liberals at 43.6%, edging out the Conservatives at 36.1%. But by April 24, the gap narrowed, with voters starting to refocus on domestic gripes like housing. Carney’s Liberals, holding 153 seats in the last Parliament, need a majority—or a coalition with the New Democrats or Bloc Québécois—to govern. Poilievre’s Conservatives, with 120 seats, are banking on their base in the Prairies and rural Ontario to pull through.
Today’s vote, wrapping up when polls close at 9:30 p.m. in British Columbia, will decide who faces Trump’s next move. Some 545,579 eligible voters in Newfoundland and Labrador alone are casting ballots, joined by millions more across Canada’s 343 ridings. A deadly attack at a Vancouver street festival on April 26, killing 11, briefly paused campaigning, but the focus stayed on the U.S. threat. Results are expected overnight, with official tallies posted by Elections Canada in the coming days.